The following Commodity Futures Market Analysis is the opinion of Optimus Futures. Click on the charts below to enlarge it.
S&P 500 Index Futures (ES)
The S&P 500 Emini futures market last week appeared largely unperturbed about the trade concerns with China, as higher volume lead the market towards a new all-time high, ahead of major sector reshuffle slotted for Monday.
The telecom sector within the S&P500 index is to be expanded to include some of the heavier volume stocks including Amazon, Facebook and Walt Disney Co. The change was welcomed by traders and investors, further fueling price gains for the market through the latter half of the week.
On the technical front, this optimism was printed into a strong looking bullish engulfing candlestick pattern on the daily time frame midway through the week, hinting at the obvious Launchpad that the bulls seemed to have created for themselves.
Longer term, we continue to see more strength for the ongoing uptrend and for the market to potentially hit the 3000 round number in the coming weeks.
Light Crude Oil Futures (CL)
Light crude oil futures market interestingly was majorly bullish last week, thanks to the market’s reaction to impending fresh sanctions on Iran.
We had been indicating the market’s potential to possibly reverse off the $74 and $75 long term support and resistance levels, or at least print a more extended pullback into the longer term uptrend, eyeing the obvious consolidation phase just underneath the $74 price level.
However, strong buying last week allowed the market to close above the $70 price level, potentially indicating at the possibility of more buying coming in this week, if the $70 level continues to hold as support. Noticeably though, higher price levels still seem to be tied to support and resistance levels, majorly the $72.5 level that is in close vicinity to Friday’s close price.
It should be interesting to see if the present bullish momentum would allow for the market to retest the all-important $74 and $75 price levels in the near future.
Gold Futures (GC)
Futures market for Gold was relatively less impactful last week, as we see buyers and sellers remain pressed within a tight consolidation phase centered around the $1200 mark.
A more holistic view of the market for Gold shows a majorly dominant downtrend that seems to be just caught up at the $1200 presently. In this context, we find it interesting that the market last week again found formidable resistance at the $1215 former support-turned-resistance level. While we are yet to see a potential move down under the $1200 level, we see the foundations being laid for such a possibility. We are at least hopeful of a strong retest of the recently created swing low at $1167.
Euro Currency Futures (6E)
Euro currency futures market finally pushed past the $1.16 price level, using it as support to allow for a strong week of buying.
Interestingly, we not only saw a confident push past the $1.16 level – something that we saw missing for the prior two consecutive weeks – We also saw the market close rather strongly above the $1.18 level of key resistance for the market.
The close above $1.18 could potentially pave way for more buying this week, especially as we see little hindrance on the upside, except the 1.2 major round number, that does not seem to be in close vicinity with current price level.
Should the $1.18 price level hold, we expect more upside for this market over the short term, with the possibility of an eventual test of the $1.22 former support level and base of a former consolidation phase for the market.
10 Year US Treasury Futures (TY)
The market for 10 year US treasury bonds continued to show more weakness last week, as we saw a strong close underneath the crucial 119 support level.
Despite the strong bearish momentum however, we did not quite see the retest of the swing low just above the 118 price level but we are not discouraged. On the flip-side, the market plummeting into the aforementioned swing low could have raised more doubts for us regarding the level’s ability to give way to the sellers. We see the current market action and specially the close below 119 price level as a largely optimistic scenario for sellers.
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.