Commodity Futures Market Analysis – September 17th, 2018

Commodity Futures Market Analysis – September 17th, 2018


The following Commodity Futures Market Analysis is the opinion of Optimus Futures. Click on the charts below to enlarge it.

S&P 500 Index Futures (ES)

The S&P 500 Emini futures market rebounded off the key 2880 support and resistance level last week, as the uptrend remains intact.

S&P Emini Commodity Futures Market Analysis September 17th 2018

Partially buoyed by a spike in chipmaker stocks and the renewed interest of potential trade talks between China and the US, the market continued to edge higher, although we did not see an authoritative new all-time high for the market. That however does not discourage us from seeing more upside for this market in the coming weeks.

Long term we still have eyes set on the 3000 big round number, and see no signs of momentum exhaustion from the bulls just yet.

Light Crude Oil Futures (CL)

Light crude oil futures market continued to hold firmly under the $70 round number, adding to the sideways consolidation theme for this market.

Crude Oil Commodity Futures Market Analysis September 17th 2018

Besides the $70 round number, we also see major potential support coming in at $66 and $67 price levels should the downward pressure retain for the early trading sessions this week.

Despite finding the market mostly weak and lacking firm sentiment, we remain long term sellers for this market, on grounds of the market’s hesitance to break past the long term resistance coming in at $74 and $75 price levels. While we see potential support from $66, the ongoing consolidation could eventually allow for the market to break towards the downside. In the context, we will be eyeing for a break under the $66 level in the coming days.

Gold Futures (GC)

Futures market for Gold continued to build on the consolidation around the $1200 round number, although a strong push from the sellers on Friday drafts a possible case of a break under the $1200 in the early trading sessions this week.

Gold Commodity Futures Market Analysis September 17th 2018

We continue to see the market potentially tightening up inside of a short term wedge pattern formation around the $1200 level, although siding with the longer term down trend, we are leaning more towards the possibility of a break under the $1200 level in the coming days.

That expectation comes despite the fact that the market already posted a fake breakout of the level under the $1200 mark more recently. On grounds of the market not being able to build any kind of major momentum towards the upside, we believe it maybe readying for yet another push under the $1200 level to test the swing low created near the $1168 price level.

Euro Currency Futures (6E)

Euro currency futures market continues to remain pivoted at the 1.16 price level, as the sideways consolidation theme extended this past week as well.

Euro Futures Commodity Futures Market Analysis September 17th 2018

We have long been awaiting for the market to push farther away from the 1.16 price level but the lack of clear sentiment in the market keeps it pinned to the key horizontal support and resistance level.

We are noticing the impact of a very obvious descending resistance trendline that the market seemed to have again bounced off of last week. We see this trendline capping any attempts from buyers in the more recent past. Should this theme continue we may potentially see the market breaking down under the 1.16 level on a sustained break for a change. On the flip-side, a break above the trendline could just give buyers the momentum they need to post an extended move up, perhaps reminiscent of the down-move that led us down to these price levels in the first place.

10 Year US Treasury Futures (TY)

The market for 10 year US treasury bonds on Friday continue to remain affected by the broader sideways consolidation pattern, however this last week did prove to be rather useful for sellers as the market pushed sharply lower to end a two-week streak of dull trading activity.

Bonds 1 Commodity Futures Market Analysis September 17th 2018

Notably the market closed on a strong bearish note on Friday, in very close proximity to the 119 key support level, but more importantly farther away from the 120 round number that the market has been pivoted on for the past several weeks.

Should this bearish momentum continue we expect for the market to try and potentially test the 118.2 support level and key swing low, in line with the longer term bearish momentum. As of now though, we see the market still pretty much caught up within the consolidation phase, which for us means the market remains vulnerable and prone to knee jerk reactions off key support and resistance levels including the 119 level.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. 

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