The following Commodity Futures Market Analysis is the opinion of Optimus Futures. Click on the charts below to enlarge it.
S&P 500 Index Futures
The S&P 500 Emini futures market traded at price levels that were unseen since the start of February. However the market continues to trade with caution amidst ongoing political turmoil in the country.
Last week, American president Donald Trump fired Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who is just another of the recent high-profile exits that include the ousted communications director Hope Hicks and chief strategist Steve Bannon.
On the international front, investors are worrisome of possibly growing tensions with China amidst the looming threat of stricter tariffs on the Asian country.
Although with caution, we are seeing the market slowly climb back closer to the 2900 resistance possibly aiming for a break of the 3000 mark to the upside, although a lot is still to be desired in terms of economic and political stability in the country to expect a high profile breakout.
Light Crude Oil Futures
Light crude oil futures market continued to trade mostly sideways indicating indecision last week, although the latter half of the week came out stronger for the bulls as the market broke past a shorter term resistance trend line possibly breaking a wedge pattern formation to the upside.
The broader picture, however, continues to indicate price being stuck in a longer term wedge pattern, although the recent move up has brought price closer to the resistance trend line forming part of the longer term wedge pattern. Given any favorable fundamental developments this week, we could potentially see the bulls continue to gain control of the market possibly gearing up to force through the current consolidation phase to resume the longer term uptrend.
Gold commodity futures market continued to be largely indecisive this past week as the market continues to be pressed between a larger horizontal channel governed by the resistance at 1350 and critical support at 1300.
While we are seeing the market inching closer towards the 1300 support level more so than the resistance at the 1350 level, we are also eyeing key fundamental developments mainly with the fragile political and economic conditions in the US. Increased certainity in the equity markets could possibly pull Gold higher being a safer investment option.
Euro 6E Futures
Euro currency futures for the week traded sideways in a very tight channel possibly indicating for increased trading activity this week.
In the broader picture, the market seems to be caught in a consolidation phase that seems to be edging closer toward a breakout either to the upside to resume the longer term up trend, or potentially to the downside which could mark the beginning of a longer term retracement or perhaps even a full-fledged reversal.
So far however, we have no indications to expect any major selling pressure, and in lieu with the longer term trend, anticipate a potential move up past this current phase of consolidation.
10-Year US Treasury Note Futures
The 10 year US Bonds futures market last week pushed higher above the 120 level finally, after having found solid support at the level for almost all of the week prior to last one.
Citing the strong support at 120, we had been cautioning against a move up, despite the long term trend pointing down. Last week, we did see some bullish activity at the 120 round number as price pushed back above, also breaking a sharply descending resistance trend line (See chart above). However, we are not yet confident of the current market situation as representing a potential ‘breakout’ play to the upside.
As the bulls seem to be fighting a persistent down trend, the bullish pressure has to be significantly stronger to convince us of a turnaround at the 120 level. However, until sellers show more signs of taking price convincingly lower than 120, we suspect the level will continue to attract buyers for now.
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.