The analysis below is our opinion and any reliance on the numbers below is done at your own discretion. There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading.
Last week, good US retail sales number and worse than expected consumer sentiment data made for a mixed week. On Tuesday, the S&P E-Mini Futures had a big down day and during the rest of the week, price just kept ranging at the 2130 area without any direction and lots of volatility. The trendline, which met up with the 100-day moving average, is being tested right now and the area price has entered is non-directional which means that price is stuck between support and resistance areas.
Price is now, once again, close to the 2100 support area which all traders will be watching next week. Expect to see lots of volatility once price reaches the area. On Tuesday, CPI data is being released which will be used as a proxy for the FED rate hike likelihood.
After Gold‘s drop 2 weeks ago, last week’s price action showed a narrowing triangle pattern right at 1255. A break of the S&P E-Mini support could lead to more safe-haven flows and help Gold rally back into the resistance at 1300. If the level on the S&P holds, we could see a continuation of the sell-off in Gold all the way into 1200.
The recent Gold drop also coincided with the appreciation of the US-Dollar and Gold traders will keep a close eye on how the US-Dollar trades this week, given the close correlation.
The US-Dollar was the clear winner last week and the USD-Index rallied above the previous resistance at 97.50. Price has consolidated there for the past few days but managed to hold above the level. CPI data will also be an important news event for the USD this week.
According to CFTC data, speculators net long positions are hitting their highest levels in 8 months.
To the upside, 98.77 is could be the next target and if price falls back below the support level, 96.2 is an untested support level to the downside, in our opinion.
Crude Oil ended its week pretty much where it started and after a strong up day on Monday, price fell back into the support at 50. For now, the support level is holding but price can’t find enough momentum to make the next run into 53 which is the next upside potential resistance. To the downside, there are lots of support barriers such as the trendline, the 20 and the 100-day moving average.
Crude supplies outweighed US fuel inventories and the OPEC plans to cut output although there are other countries (namely Brazil) who are probably not going to go along with an output cut. All this talk is adding to the uncertainty and the volatility on Crude Oil.
A lower Euro is helping the export-oriented Euro economy and the EUR/USD has fallen to fresh lows below the important 1.10 price level. Last week’s macro data out of the Euro-Zone were mostly positive, only CPI data didn’t change last month.
Euro futures just traded out of their past months’ range and fell straight into the support at 1.10. Last week’s close was weak on the Euro and if the level doesn’t hold, 1.09 is the next likely downside target.
On Monday, we are seeing the core CPI data coming out of the Euro-Zone and also Draghi is speaking later that day. On Thursday, there is a ECB press conference beeing held which could also lead to more volatility in the Euro.
Disappointing Chinese trade data on Thursday surprised the markets and even though PPI and CPI rose unexpectedly, it wasn’t enough to keep Copper from selling off. Copper price has accelerated its sell-off and is approaching the low of the trendline at 2.07 once again.
Chinese GDP data on Wednesday will probably be the biggest market mover for Copper if the data shows a negative surprise.
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.