The S&P 500 continued to trade in its narrow range between 2175 and 2125 over the past 2 weeks. Growing concerns about the banking system in Europe, and Germany in particular, did not affect trading activity in the US – yet.
Yellen does not sound too optimistic about a December rate hike and unless we are seeing some more positive economic data soon, which most analysts don’t expect to happen, no additional rate hike is probably the likely outcome.
This week, employment and NFP data will be released and traders will pay close attention to the report, especially with regards to the FED talk. The fear and greed index is at 50 which means neutral and the charts confirm that with the narrow range trading. Market participants are obviously hesitant and waiting for a new impulse and more data. Although
The fear and greed index is at 50 which means neutral and the charts confirm that with the narrow range trading. Market participants are obviously hesitant and waiting for a new impulse and more data. Although price is trading at all-time highs, there is little enthusiasm right now in the markets.
Better than expected durable good lifted the US Dollar in the short term but market participants watched Yellen’s talk closely and she sounded as if a rate hike in December is not likely which pushed the US-Dollar lower. Although jobless numbers were positive the last time, without higher inflation and more positive economic news coming, a rate hike in December is probably not going to happen.
The Greenback had a volatile week and after a bullish run up at the start of the week, the US Dollar closed lower, back in its range. Price action feels more bearish after last week’s bullish rejection and a break below the trendline could open the room for more potential shorting opportunities. To the upside, 96 is a tough resistance and a stronger catalyst is needed to get above it.
Despite the growing concerns in Europe and the German banking sector in particular, Gold closed right at the support level 1308. Gold followed the pattern in the S&P closely and traded mostly back and forth in a narrow range. So far, international markets don’t seem too concerned about the Deutsche Bank news but this can change rather quickly.
Below the support level, Gold has room to move lower without any immediate price hurdles in the way. If, however, markets become worried about what is happening overseas or if US data disappoints, Gold could rally back into previous highs.
The OPEC announced a production cut starting in November. Crude Oil jumped after the news was announced and price closed strong for the week, hitting the upper trendline of the recent wedge pattern. Whereas we have seen sell-offs once the trendline was hit in the past, the OPEC deal might just have been the catalyst that Crude has been waiting for. Above current price, the 50 round number and the 52 resistance levels are the net targets with the even bigger resistance cluster starting at 56.
Economic data out of China has been steady for the past few weeks and the regained stability in China definitely helped Copper to move away from its lows. Price is now almost back at the upper trendline and the dips last week got bought and price closed green on the week. 2.25 seems possible next week, however, there are bank holidays in China throughout the whole week so we can expect to see a low momentum trading week except Coppers finds another catalyst.
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