{"id":3531,"date":"2016-06-19T20:52:56","date_gmt":"2016-06-20T01:52:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.optimusfutures.com\/tradeblog\/?p=3531"},"modified":"2016-06-19T20:52:56","modified_gmt":"2016-06-20T01:52:56","slug":"a-realistic-insight-into-drawdowns-time-and-length","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/optimusfutures.com\/blog\/a-realistic-insight-into-drawdowns-time-and-length\/","title":{"rendered":"10 tips to potentially help you survive the next Drawdown"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Drawdown is a Reality of Every Trader<\/h2>\n<p>Being able to deal with and understand drawdowns are among the most important concepts in trading and in the life of a futures trader. Misinterpreting drawdowns lead to wrong assumptions and decisions that not only may result in larger drawdowns, but can even mean the &#8220;end&#8221; of a trading account.<\/p>\n<p>Conventional drawdown parameters and risk metrics such as the <strong>Sharpe<\/strong> and <strong>Sortino<\/strong> ratio may add value when it comes to understanding one\u2019s own performance. However, we think that on their own, they are not sufficient to understand drawdowns and you may require the understanding of additional concepts to fully appreciate the positive and the negative of your own style, and\/or the analysis of an automated system or a managed account run by a commodity trading adviser.<\/p>\n<p>A good starting point is the so-called <strong>\u2018peak to valley\u2019 drawdown metrics<\/strong> where a trader analyses the largest drawdown periods that the account spends below a high watermark. However, instead of just focusing on the largest absolute drawdown, it is recommended to also check for annual, semi-annual and quarterly \u2018peak to valley\u2019 drawdowns so that you get a feeling as to what to expect during shorter and longer time periods. The purpose here is to know your performance, so that the next time you enter a drawdown period, you are better prepared and you know roughly what to expect and what is &#8220;normal&#8221; when it comes to your own method.<\/p>\n<p>Next, you should look at the <strong>drawdown duration<\/strong> and how long your typical drawdown lasts on average. The time component is an important metric because financial markets go through the same cycles over and over again and, thus, trading systems will naturally have better and more challenging periods.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.optimusfutures.com\/tradeblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/drawdown-1.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3532 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.optimusfutures.com\/tradeblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/drawdown-1.png\" alt=\"drawdown measured in time \" width=\"733\" height=\"262\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Charts courtesy of <a href=\"https:\/\/optimusfutures.com\/iSystems.php\">iSystems<\/a><\/p>\n<p>In the context of drawdown-duration, it can useful to knowing under which market conditions your trading method performs best. Thus, a trader who knows the current market environment can better understand his drawdowns; all trading systems undergo those cycles and you just have to push through the more challenging times to make it to the next market cycle that may favors you system and method.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.optimusfutures.com\/tradeblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/market-periods.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3533 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.optimusfutures.com\/tradeblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/market-periods.png\" alt=\"Drawdowns-periods\" width=\"1270\" height=\"579\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>At the same time, a trader who understands how long his average drawdowns last from a time perspective, can easily see when markets shift back into his favor and then also adjust his risk management accordingly \u2013 we will cover that later.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, a trader who knows his average drawdown duration in trade numbers can adjust his position sizing in a way that allows him to minimize performance drawdowns. Here, it is especially important to know the average and the maximum number of consecutive losing trades your system produces.<\/p>\n<p>Whereas most trading literature suggests keeping risk constant during drawdowns (sometimes you will even see recommendations to increase the size) because it will, theoretically, allow you to get out of the drawdown faster, this is almost <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">never<\/span> what a trader should be doing.<\/p>\n<h2>Manage your drawdowns like a Professional Trader<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.optimusfutures.com\/tradeblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/19-06-_2016_17-43-57.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3535 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.optimusfutures.com\/tradeblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/19-06-_2016_17-43-57.png\" alt=\"Drawdown and position sizing \" width=\"636\" height=\"237\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The main problem a trader faces during a drawdown is almost never the loss of monetary capital, but the loss of emotional capital. A drawdown can weigh heavily on the psychology of a trader and when frustration, lack motivation and helplessness set in, traders often abandon their trading rules and become undisciplined which then leads, of course, to even worse drawdowns.<\/p>\n<p>A trader who experiences emotional problems during a drawdown also has little use for the previously discussed statistical based drawdown metrics since his greatest challenge is usually to pick himself up. Knowing that a drawdown will end is good but once a trader hast lost his emotional capital, rational thinking is hard to follow.<\/p>\n<p><strong>In summery:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>Drawdown is simply the pain period you must endure while your systems does not have positive expectancy. \u00a0You measure drawdowns between your highest performance peak and the lowest equity. However, if you recover from the drawdown, and reach new equity highs, you can measure your previous equity high to your new equity high. \u00a0s mentioned above, this will give you a perspective how long it took market conditions to change to match your trading method.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Time is also a measure of drawdown. \u00a0Traders and investor could periodically be in more pain over the length of drawdown than the actual financial loss occurring.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>10 tips to potentially help you survive the next drawdown.<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>In order for you to survive and make it out of a drawdown, here are our top 10 tips:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Start collecting your drawdown statistics and keep accurate records<\/li>\n<li>\u201cPeak to valley\u201d and drawdown-duration are more important than conventional Sortino and Sharpe ratios<\/li>\n<li>Get your drawdown statistics for annual, semi-annual, quarterly and monthly periods to get a feeling for what is \u2018normal\u2019 and expected<\/li>\n<li>Start tracking the market conditions and understand during which market conditions you perform better and when drawdowns are likely to occur<\/li>\n<li>Always make sure that drawdowns are caused by actual market impacts and that they are not caused by you and bad trading behavior<\/li>\n<li>Review your trades every week to understand your trading performance and behavior<\/li>\n<li>Reduce your risk during a drawdown and focus on capital protection as your main priority<\/li>\n<li>Don\u2019t try to force a quick end to your drawdown. Only focus on maintaining a healthy mindset<\/li>\n<li>Once you realize that a loss in emotional capital, take a few days off and regain focus.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Drawdown is a Reality of Every Trader Being able to deal with and understand drawdowns are among the most important concepts in trading and in the life of a futures trader. Misinterpreting drawdowns lead to wrong assumptions and decisions that not only may result in larger drawdowns, but can even mean the &#8220;end&#8221; of a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":15255,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[41,105,2,3],"tags":[598,104,599,321,6,600,601,602,134,188,189],"class_list":["post-3531","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-automated-futures-trading","category-managed-futures","category-online-futures-trading","category-trading-tips-and-strategies","tag-automated-systems","tag-drawdown","tag-emotional-trading","tag-forex-trading","tag-futures-trading","tag-managed-futures","tag-measure-of-drawdown","tag-peak-to-valley","tag-psychology-of-trading","tag-sharpe-ratio","tag-sortino-ratio"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.6 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>10-tips-to-potentially-help-you-survive-the-next-drawdown<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Traders of Forex, Futures or Stocks do not want to face the reality of drawdowns. They prefer to believe there are consistent returns with mild volatility.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/optimusfutures.com\/blog\/a-realistic-insight-into-drawdowns-time-and-length\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"10-tips-to-potentially-help-you-survive-the-next-drawdown\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Traders of Forex, Futures or Stocks do not want to face the reality of drawdowns. 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