{"id":1774,"date":"2015-04-20T20:10:11","date_gmt":"2015-04-21T01:10:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.optimusfutures.com\/tradeblog\/?p=1774"},"modified":"2015-04-20T20:10:11","modified_gmt":"2015-04-21T01:10:11","slug":"positive-expectancy-is-more-important-than-your-last-futures-trade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/optimusfutures.com\/blog\/positive-expectancy-is-more-important-than-your-last-futures-trade\/","title":{"rendered":"Positive Expectancy is more important than your last futures trade!"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p class=\"Title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.optimusfutures.com\/tradeblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/hpjsku2uysu-carlos-muza.jpg\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-4516 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/www.optimusfutures.com\/tradeblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/hpjsku2uysu-carlos-muza-1024x729.jpg\" alt=\"positive expectancy\" width=\"600\" height=\"427\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"Title\">After reading this article about Positive Expectancy, we sincerely hope that you can stop looking at performance on a trade-by-trade basis and are instead able to consider that your ability to have positive results is based on a large sample of trades. The more trades, the better. The larger the sample, the better.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"Normal\">By examining a large sample of <a href=\"https:\/\/optimusfutures.com\/\">futures<\/a> trades, whether, in real or simulated trading, it can be seen that having a recent trade bias is never indicative of whether a system is good or bad. Recent trade bias is instead an impediment and handicap for many traders: they become paralyzed with fear when unavoidable losses occur, or they experience euphoria causing overconfidence, resulting in the use of too much leverage and overly aggressive trading in multiple futures contracts at once.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Normal\">Some ratios may be employed, which may potentially keep a trader from taking every trade. Instead of being emotional, taking every single trade available, using expectancy <a href=\"https:\/\/www.optimusfutures.com\/blog\/ratios-used-in-evaluating-automated-trading-systems\/\">ratios<\/a> allows traders to adjust trades, possibly improving a trader\u2019s or system\u2019s risk to reward ratio. Here is the ratio:<\/p>\n<p class=\"Normal\"><strong>\u00a0R Multiple = (R) Risk taken per trade \/ (R) Reward taken per trade<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"Normal\">\u00a0Let&#8217;s use an example:\u00a0\u00a0 500 Loss \/ 1000 Profit = 0.5 R-Multiple<\/p>\n<p class=\"Normal\">\u00a0This means that for every dollar gained, 50% is risked.\u00a0 Examining the R multiple for a large sample of trades allows traders to look objectively at the method employed and decide whether to tweak it. For example, using the R multiple, traders can see if they can change a stop-loss (risk) or expand a profit target (reward,) while taking into account the bigger picture using charts and trading methodology.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Normal\">\u00a0Now we can move to another ratio that could give positive or negative expectancy:<\/p>\n<p class=\"Normal\">\u00a0<strong>Expectancy = (Average Winner X Win Rate) &#8211; (Average Loser X Loss Rate)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"Normal\">\u00a0This is also known as Gross Expectancy because it does not take into account <a href=\"https:\/\/commissions.optimusfutures.com\/\">commissions<\/a>; for scalping strategies especially, commissions may have a large impact on bottom line results.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Normal\">\u00a0Let&#8217;s use an example: Expectancy ($800 X 0.4) &#8211; ($200 X .6) = $320 &#8211; $120 = $200<\/p>\n<p class=\"Normal\">\u00a0It can easily be seen, that although the number of losing trades is much larger (60%) than the number of winning trades (40%), it is obvious that this system comes out ahead. Beginning futures traders have a misconception that more trades must be won to come out ahead.\u00a0 This is not true. What is important is whether the <span class=\"Normal__Char\">expectancy<\/span> of trades is leaning more towards a positive or negative value.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Normal\">Using the formulas above will you help you separate luck from skill.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Please be advised that trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.\u00a0 Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.\u00a0 This matter is intended as a solicitation to trade.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"line-height: 1.5;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After reading this article about Positive Expectancy, we sincerely hope that you can stop looking at performance on a trade-by-trade basis and are instead able to consider that your ability to have positive results is based on a large sample of trades. The more trades, the better. The larger the sample, the better. By examining [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":15327,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3],"tags":[5,140,6,141,142],"class_list":["post-1774","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-online-futures-trading","category-trading-tips-and-strategies","tag-commodity-trading","tag-futures-traders","tag-futures-trading","tag-positive-expectancy","tag-probability-of-success"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.6 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Positive Expectancy is more important than your last futures trade!<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"positive expectancy makes the trader look across a large sample instead of focusing on individual futures trades that don&#039;t have a long-term perspective.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/optimusfutures.com\/blog\/positive-expectancy-is-more-important-than-your-last-futures-trade\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Positive Expectancy is more important than your last futures trade!\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"positive expectancy makes the trader look across a large sample instead of focusing on individual futures trades that don&#039;t have a long-term perspective.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/optimusfutures.com\/blog\/positive-expectancy-is-more-important-than-your-last-futures-trade\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Trading Blog - 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